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Dinamo Jug vs SFS Borac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Dinamo Jug
Dinamo Jug
FT
4 – 0
SFS Borac
SFS Borac
3/23/2025Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 18Stadion YUMCO

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dinamo Jug66%
×Draw20%
SFS Borac14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Jug
2.03
SFS Borac
0.79

Dinamo Jug creates 157% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 72 away

creates per match

Dinamo Jug
2.47
SFS Borac
1.10

allows per match

Dinamo Jug
0.47
SFS Borac
1.58

finishing

Dinamo Jug+0.00on par
SFS Borac+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Jug ↓

SFS Borac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dinamo Jug or draw
86%
Dinamo Jug or SFS Borac
80%
Draw or SFS Borac
34%

Winning margin

Dinamo Jug wins by 2+
41%
SFS Borac wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Dinamo Jug 1+ goals
87%
Dinamo Jug 2+ goals
60%
Dinamo Jug 3+ goals
33%
SFS Borac 1+ goals
55%
SFS Borac 2+ goals
19%
SFS Borac 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Jug (draw refunded)
83%
SFS Borac (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Jug at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

SFS Borac away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.58 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Jug attack 2.47 + SFS Borac defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.03

SFS Borac attack 1.10 + Dinamo Jug defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Dinamo Jug scores more
66%
level
20%
SFS Borac scores more
14%

Dinamo Jug at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Dinamo Jug will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Dinamo Jug 4–0 SFS Borac

Dinamo Jug beat SFS Borac 4-0 in Srpska Liga - East on March 23, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion YUMCO in Vranje.