Dinamo Jug 4–0 Budućnost Popovac: Result & Stats

Dinamo Jug

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Budućnost Popovac

8/21/2024

Srpska Liga - East · East - 2Stadion YUMCO

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dinamo Jug61%

×Draw21%

Budućnost Popovac17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo JugExpected goals in this matchBudućnost Popovac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.93

Dinamo Jug

1.96

Budućnost Popovac

0.93

Dinamo Jug creates 111% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 87 away

2.47

creates per match

1.40

0.47

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Dinamo Jug

2.47

Budućnost Popovac

1.40

allows per match

Dinamo Jug

0.47

Budućnost Popovac

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Jug+0.00on par

Budućnost Popovac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Jug ↓

Budućnost Popovac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Dinamo Jug or draw

83%

Dinamo Jug or Budućnost Popovac

79%

Draw or Budućnost Popovac

39%

Winning margin

Dinamo Jug wins by 2+

37%

Budućnost Popovac wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Dinamo Jug 1+ goals

86%

Dinamo Jug 2+ goals

58%

Dinamo Jug 3+ goals

31%

Budućnost Popovac 1+ goals

61%

Budućnost Popovac 2+ goals

24%

Budućnost Popovac 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Jug (draw refunded)

78%

Budućnost Popovac (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Jug at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

Budućnost Popovac away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.45 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Jug attack 2.47 + Budućnost Popovac defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.96

Budućnost Popovac attack 1.40 + Dinamo Jug defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Dinamo Jug scores more

61%

level

21%

Budućnost Popovac scores more

17%

Dinamo Jug at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Dinamo Jug will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff