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Dinamo Helfort vs Union Mauer — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Dinamo Helfort
Dinamo Helfort
FT
0 – 2
Union Mauer
Union Mauer
3/9/2024Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 17Sportplatz Helfort

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Dinamo Helfort40%
×Draw24%
Union Mauer37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Helfort
1.63
Union Mauer
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 60 away

creates per match

Dinamo Helfort
2.28
Union Mauer
2.03

allows per match

Dinamo Helfort
1.08
Union Mauer
0.97

finishing

Dinamo Helfort+0.00on par
Union Mauer+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Helfort ↓

Union Mauer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dinamo Helfort or draw
63%
Dinamo Helfort or Union Mauer
76%
Draw or Union Mauer
60%

Winning margin

Dinamo Helfort wins by 2+
20%
Union Mauer wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Dinamo Helfort 1+ goals
80%
Dinamo Helfort 2+ goals
48%
Dinamo Helfort 3+ goals
22%
Union Mauer 1+ goals
79%
Union Mauer 2+ goals
46%
Union Mauer 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Helfort (draw refunded)
52%
Union Mauer (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Helfort at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.08 · 61 matches

Union Mauer away — creates 2.03, concedes 0.97 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Helfort attack 2.28 + Union Mauer defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.63

Union Mauer attack 2.03 + Dinamo Helfort defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dinamo Helfort scores more
40%
level
24%
Union Mauer scores more
37%

Dinamo Helfort at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dinamo Helfort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Wien: Dinamo Helfort 0–2 Union Mauer

Union Mauer beat Dinamo Helfort 2-0 in Landesliga - Wien on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Helfort in Wien.