Dinamo Helfort 3–1 Simmeringer SC: Result & Stats

Dinamo Helfort

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Simmeringer SC

8/16/2025

Landesliga - Wien · Wien - 1Sportplatz Helfort

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Dinamo Helfort61%

×Draw21%

Simmeringer SC18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo HelfortExpected goals in this matchSimmeringer SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.05

Dinamo Helfort

2.09

Simmeringer SC

1.05

Dinamo Helfort creates 99% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 45 away

2.28

creates per match

1.02

1.08

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Dinamo Helfort

2.28

Simmeringer SC

1.02

allows per match

Dinamo Helfort

1.08

Simmeringer SC

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Helfort+0.00on par

Simmeringer SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Helfort ↓

Simmeringer SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Dinamo Helfort or draw

82%

Dinamo Helfort or Simmeringer SC

79%

Draw or Simmeringer SC

39%

Winning margin

Dinamo Helfort wins by 2+

38%

Simmeringer SC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Dinamo Helfort 1+ goals

88%

Dinamo Helfort 2+ goals

62%

Dinamo Helfort 3+ goals

34%

Simmeringer SC 1+ goals

65%

Simmeringer SC 2+ goals

28%

Simmeringer SC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Helfort (draw refunded)

77%

Simmeringer SC (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Helfort at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.08 · 61 matches

Simmeringer SC away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Helfort attack 2.28 + Simmeringer SC defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.09

Simmeringer SC attack 1.02 + Dinamo Helfort defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Dinamo Helfort scores more

61%

level

21%

Simmeringer SC scores more

18%

Dinamo Helfort at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Dinamo Helfort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff