Dinamo Helfort 1–1 Schwechat: Result & Stats

Dinamo Helfort

FT

1 – 1

Schwechat

4/1/2023

Landesliga - Wien · Wien - 20Sportplatz Helfort

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Dinamo Helfort52%

×Draw22%

Schwechat26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo HelfortExpected goals in this matchSchwechat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.34

Dinamo Helfort

1.95

Schwechat

1.34

Dinamo Helfort creates 46% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 73 away

2.28

creates per match

1.60

1.08

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Dinamo Helfort

2.28

Schwechat

1.60

allows per match

Dinamo Helfort

1.08

Schwechat

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Helfort+0.00on par

Schwechat+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Helfort ↓

Schwechat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Dinamo Helfort or draw

74%

Dinamo Helfort or Schwechat

78%

Draw or Schwechat

48%

Winning margin

Dinamo Helfort wins by 2+

30%

Schwechat wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dinamo Helfort 1+ goals

86%

Dinamo Helfort 2+ goals

58%

Dinamo Helfort 3+ goals

31%

Schwechat 1+ goals

74%

Schwechat 2+ goals

39%

Schwechat 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Helfort (draw refunded)

66%

Schwechat (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Helfort at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.08 · 61 matches

Schwechat away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.63 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Helfort attack 2.28 + Schwechat defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.95

Schwechat attack 1.60 + Dinamo Helfort defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dinamo Helfort scores more

52%

level

22%

Schwechat scores more

26%

Dinamo Helfort at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dinamo Helfort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff