Dinamo Helfort 1–0 Post: Result & Stats

Dinamo Helfort

FT

1 – 0

Post

10/9/2021

Landesliga - Wien · Wien - 8Sportplatz Helfort

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Dinamo Helfort68%

×Draw17%

Post15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo HelfortExpected goals in this matchPost

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

1.10

Dinamo Helfort

2.54

Post

1.10

Dinamo Helfort creates 131% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 43 away

2.28

creates per match

1.12

1.08

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Dinamo Helfort

2.28

Post

1.12

allows per match

Dinamo Helfort

1.08

Post

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Helfort+0.00on par

Post+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Helfort ↓

Post →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Dinamo Helfort or draw

85%

Dinamo Helfort or Post

83%

Draw or Post

32%

Winning margin

Dinamo Helfort wins by 2+

46%

Post wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Dinamo Helfort 1+ goals

92%

Dinamo Helfort 2+ goals

72%

Dinamo Helfort 3+ goals

46%

Post 1+ goals

67%

Post 2+ goals

30%

Post 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Helfort (draw refunded)

82%

Post (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Helfort at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.08 · 61 matches

Post away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.79 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Helfort attack 2.28 + Post defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.54

Post attack 1.12 + Dinamo Helfort defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Dinamo Helfort scores more

68%

level

17%

Post scores more

15%

Dinamo Helfort at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Dinamo Helfort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff