Dinamo Helfort 1–0 Gerasdorf Stammersdorf

Dinamo Helfort

FT

1 – 0

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf

8/19/2023

Landesliga - Wien · Wien - 1Sportplatz Helfort

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Dinamo Helfort59%

×Draw21%

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo HelfortExpected goals in this matchGerasdorf Stammersdorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.17

Dinamo Helfort

2.12

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf

1.17

Dinamo Helfort creates 81% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 73 away

2.28

creates per match

1.25

1.08

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Dinamo Helfort

2.28

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf

1.25

allows per match

Dinamo Helfort

1.08

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Helfort+0.00on par

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Helfort ↓

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Dinamo Helfort or draw

80%

Dinamo Helfort or Gerasdorf Stammersdorf

79%

Draw or Gerasdorf Stammersdorf

41%

Winning margin

Dinamo Helfort wins by 2+

36%

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Dinamo Helfort 1+ goals

88%

Dinamo Helfort 2+ goals

62%

Dinamo Helfort 3+ goals

35%

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf 1+ goals

69%

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf 2+ goals

33%

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Helfort (draw refunded)

74%

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Helfort at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.08 · 61 matches

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.96 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Helfort attack 2.28 + Gerasdorf Stammersdorf defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.12

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf attack 1.25 + Dinamo Helfort defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Dinamo Helfort scores more

59%

level

21%

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf scores more

20%

Dinamo Helfort at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Dinamo Helfort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff