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Dinamo Domašinec vs Papuk — League #215 2026

Dinamo Domašinec
Dinamo Domašinec
CANC
15:00
Papuk
Papuk
4/29/2023League #215League #215 · North - 22Stadion Dinamo Domašinec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dinamo Domašinec64%
×Draw20%
Papuk15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Domašinec
2.08
Papuk
0.90

Dinamo Domašinec creates 131% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

creates per match

Dinamo Domašinec
0.67
Papuk
0.79

allows per match

Dinamo Domašinec
1.00
Papuk
3.50

finishing

Dinamo Domašinec+0.00on par
Papuk+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Domašinec ↓

Papuk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Dinamo Domašinec or draw
85%
Dinamo Domašinec or Papuk
80%
Draw or Papuk
36%

Winning margin

Dinamo Domašinec wins by 2+
40%
Papuk wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dinamo Domašinec 1+ goals
87%
Dinamo Domašinec 2+ goals
61%
Dinamo Domašinec 3+ goals
34%
Papuk 1+ goals
59%
Papuk 2+ goals
23%
Papuk 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Domašinec (draw refunded)
81%
Papuk (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Domašinec at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Papuk away — creates 0.79, concedes 3.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Domašinec attack 0.67 + Papuk defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.08

Papuk attack 0.79 + Dinamo Domašinec defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Dinamo Domašinec scores more
64%
level
20%
Papuk scores more
15%

Dinamo Domašinec at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Dinamo Domašinec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dinamo Domašinec face Papuk (League #215)

League #215 returns with Dinamo Domašinec hosting Papuk. Match starts April 29, 2023. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Dinamo Domašinec host Papuk at Stadion Dinamo Domašinec.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.