Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 0–0 Nueva Esparta

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nueva Esparta

3/19/2023

Segunda División · Apertura - 2Estadio de fútbol Francisco Massiani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz47%

×Draw28%

Nueva Esparta24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo de Puerto La CruzExpected goals in this matchNueva Esparta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.85

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

1.31

Nueva Esparta

0.85

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz creates 54% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 38 away

1.20

creates per match

0.58

1.12

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

1.20

Nueva Esparta

0.58

allows per match

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

1.12

Nueva Esparta

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz+0.00on par

Nueva Esparta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz ↓

Nueva Esparta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz or draw

76%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz or Nueva Esparta

72%

Draw or Nueva Esparta

53%

Winning margin

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz wins by 2+

22%

Nueva Esparta wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 1+ goals

73%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 2+ goals

38%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 3+ goals

14%

Nueva Esparta 1+ goals

57%

Nueva Esparta 2+ goals

21%

Nueva Esparta 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz (draw refunded)

66%

Nueva Esparta (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 82 matches

Nueva Esparta away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.42 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz attack 1.20 + Nueva Esparta defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.31

Nueva Esparta attack 0.58 + Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz scores more

47%

level

28%

Nueva Esparta scores more

24%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 0–0 Nueva Esparta

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz and Nueva Esparta drew 0-0 in Segunda División on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio de fútbol Francisco Massiani in Puerto la Cruz.

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz vs Nueva Esparta — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Segunda División: Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 0–0 Nueva Esparta