Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 1–0 Marítimo

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Marítimo

10/10/2025

Segunda División · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz35%

×Draw28%

Marítimo37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo de Puerto La CruzExpected goals in this matchMarítimo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.17

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

1.14

Marítimo

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 55 away

1.20

creates per match

1.22

1.12

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

1.20

Marítimo

1.22

allows per match

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

1.12

Marítimo

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz+0.00on par

Marítimo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz ↓

Marítimo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz or draw

63%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz or Marítimo

72%

Draw or Marítimo

65%

Winning margin

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz wins by 2+

14%

Marítimo wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 1+ goals

68%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 2+ goals

32%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 3+ goals

11%

Marítimo 1+ goals

69%

Marítimo 2+ goals

33%

Marítimo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz (draw refunded)

49%

Marítimo (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 82 matches

Marítimo away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.07 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz attack 1.20 + Marítimo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.14

Marítimo attack 1.22 + Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz scores more

35%

level

28%

Marítimo scores more

37%

Marítimo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Marítimo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff