Dinamo Bucuresti 1–0 Viitorul Constanta

Dinamo Bucuresti

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Viitorul Constanta

8/13/2018

Liga I · Round 4Stadionul Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Dinamo Bucuresti40%

×Draw29%

Viitorul Constanta31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo BucurestiExpected goals in this matchViitorul Constanta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.04

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.21

Viitorul Constanta

1.04

Dinamo Bucuresti creates 16% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 59 away

1.28

creates per match

1.07

1.02

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.28

Viitorul Constanta

1.07

allows per match

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.02

Viitorul Constanta

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Bucuresti+0.00on par

Viitorul Constanta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bucuresti ↓

Viitorul Constanta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Dinamo Bucuresti or draw

69%

Dinamo Bucuresti or Viitorul Constanta

71%

Draw or Viitorul Constanta

60%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bucuresti wins by 2+

17%

Viitorul Constanta wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dinamo Bucuresti 1+ goals

70%

Dinamo Bucuresti 2+ goals

34%

Dinamo Bucuresti 3+ goals

12%

Viitorul Constanta 1+ goals

65%

Viitorul Constanta 2+ goals

28%

Viitorul Constanta 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bucuresti (draw refunded)

56%

Viitorul Constanta (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bucuresti at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.02 · 136 matches

Viitorul Constanta away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.14 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bucuresti attack 1.28 + Viitorul Constanta defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Viitorul Constanta attack 1.07 + Dinamo Bucuresti defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dinamo Bucuresti scores more

40%

level

29%

Viitorul Constanta scores more

31%

Dinamo Bucuresti at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dinamo Bucuresti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff