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Dinamo Bucuresti vs Universitatea Craiova — Liga I 2018

Dinamo Bucuresti
Dinamo Bucuresti
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Universitatea Craiova
Universitatea Craiova
4/21/2025Liga ILiga I · Championship Round - 5Arena Naţională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

Dinamo Bucuresti36%
×Draw28%
Universitatea Craiova36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Bucuresti
1.20
Universitatea Craiova
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 136 home / 155 away

creates per match

Dinamo Bucuresti
1.28
Universitatea Craiova
1.38

allows per match

Dinamo Bucuresti
1.02
Universitatea Craiova
1.12

finishing

Dinamo Bucuresti+0.00on par
Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bucuresti ↓

Universitatea Craiova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dinamo Bucuresti or draw
64%
Dinamo Bucuresti or Universitatea Craiova
72%
Draw or Universitatea Craiova
64%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bucuresti wins by 2+
15%
Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Dinamo Bucuresti 1+ goals
70%
Dinamo Bucuresti 2+ goals
34%
Dinamo Bucuresti 3+ goals
12%
Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
70%
Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
34%
Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bucuresti (draw refunded)
50%
Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bucuresti at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.02 · 136 matches

Universitatea Craiova away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.12 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bucuresti attack 1.28 + Universitatea Craiova defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.20

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.38 + Dinamo Bucuresti defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Dinamo Bucuresti scores more
36%
level
28%
Universitatea Craiova scores more
36%

Dinamo Bucuresti at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Dinamo Bucuresti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Bucuresti vs Universitatea Craiova

Universitatea Craiova beat Dinamo Bucuresti 2-0 in Liga I on April 21, 2025.

The match was played at Arena Naţională in Bucureşti.