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Dinamo Bucuresti vs Unirea Constanța — Liga II 2018

Dinamo Bucuresti
Dinamo Bucuresti
FT
6 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Unirea Constanța
Unirea Constanța
2/27/2023Liga IILiga II · Round 17Stadionul Arcul de Triumf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dinamo Bucuresti69%
×Draw17%
Unirea Constanța14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Bucuresti
2.52
Unirea Constanța
1.04

Dinamo Bucuresti creates 142% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 25 away

creates per match

Dinamo Bucuresti
1.79
Unirea Constanța
1.08

allows per match

Dinamo Bucuresti
1.00
Unirea Constanța
3.24

finishing

Dinamo Bucuresti+0.00on par
Unirea Constanța+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bucuresti ↓

Unirea Constanța →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Dinamo Bucuresti or draw
86%
Dinamo Bucuresti or Unirea Constanța
83%
Draw or Unirea Constanța
31%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bucuresti wins by 2+
47%
Unirea Constanța wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dinamo Bucuresti 1+ goals
92%
Dinamo Bucuresti 2+ goals
71%
Dinamo Bucuresti 3+ goals
45%
Unirea Constanța 1+ goals
65%
Unirea Constanța 2+ goals
28%
Unirea Constanța 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bucuresti (draw refunded)
83%
Unirea Constanța (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bucuresti at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Unirea Constanța away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bucuresti attack 1.79 + Unirea Constanța defence 3.24 → ÷2 → 2.52

Unirea Constanța attack 1.08 + Dinamo Bucuresti defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Dinamo Bucuresti scores more
69%
level
17%
Unirea Constanța scores more
14%

Dinamo Bucuresti at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Dinamo Bucuresti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Bucuresti vs Unirea Constanța

Dinamo Bucuresti beat Unirea Constanța 6-0 in Liga II on February 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Arcul de Triumf in București.