Dinamo Bucuresti 0–3 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

Dinamo Bucuresti

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

7/31/2023

Liga I · Round 3Stadionul Arcul de Triumf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Dinamo Bucuresti40%

×Draw28%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo BucurestiExpected goals in this matchSepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.10

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.27

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

1.10

Dinamo Bucuresti creates 15% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 135 away

1.28

creates per match

1.18

1.02

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.28

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

1.18

allows per match

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.02

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Bucuresti+0.00on par

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bucuresti ↓

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Dinamo Bucuresti or draw

68%

Dinamo Bucuresti or Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

72%

Draw or Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

60%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bucuresti wins by 2+

18%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Dinamo Bucuresti 1+ goals

72%

Dinamo Bucuresti 2+ goals

36%

Dinamo Bucuresti 3+ goals

14%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1+ goals

67%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2+ goals

30%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bucuresti (draw refunded)

56%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bucuresti at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.02 · 136 matches

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.25 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bucuresti attack 1.28 + Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe attack 1.18 + Dinamo Bucuresti defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dinamo Bucuresti scores more

40%

level

28%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe scores more

32%

Dinamo Bucuresti at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dinamo Bucuresti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff