Dinamo Bucuresti 1–0 Ripensia Timisoara

Dinamo Bucuresti

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ripensia Timisoara

10/15/2022

Liga II · Round 10Stadionul Marin Anastasovici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dinamo Bucuresti52%

×Draw25%

Ripensia Timisoara24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo BucurestiExpected goals in this matchRipensia Timisoara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.02

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.64

Ripensia Timisoara

1.02

Dinamo Bucuresti creates 61% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 70 away

1.79

creates per match

1.03

1.00

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.79

Ripensia Timisoara

1.03

allows per match

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.00

Ripensia Timisoara

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Bucuresti+0.00on par

Ripensia Timisoara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bucuresti ↓

Ripensia Timisoara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Dinamo Bucuresti or draw

76%

Dinamo Bucuresti or Ripensia Timisoara

75%

Draw or Ripensia Timisoara

48%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bucuresti wins by 2+

28%

Ripensia Timisoara wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Dinamo Bucuresti 1+ goals

81%

Dinamo Bucuresti 2+ goals

49%

Dinamo Bucuresti 3+ goals

23%

Ripensia Timisoara 1+ goals

64%

Ripensia Timisoara 2+ goals

27%

Ripensia Timisoara 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bucuresti (draw refunded)

69%

Ripensia Timisoara (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bucuresti at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Ripensia Timisoara away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.49 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bucuresti attack 1.79 + Ripensia Timisoara defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.64

Ripensia Timisoara attack 1.03 + Dinamo Bucuresti defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dinamo Bucuresti scores more

52%

level

25%

Ripensia Timisoara scores more

24%

Dinamo Bucuresti at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dinamo Bucuresti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff