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Dinamo Bucuresti vs FC Clinceni — Liga I 2018

Dinamo Bucuresti
Dinamo Bucuresti
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
FC Clinceni
FC Clinceni
4/9/2021Liga ILiga I · Round 30Stadionul Ştefan cel Mare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Dinamo Bucuresti53%
×Draw25%
FC Clinceni22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Bucuresti
1.63
FC Clinceni
0.96

Dinamo Bucuresti creates 70% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 59 away

creates per match

Dinamo Bucuresti
1.28
FC Clinceni
0.90

allows per match

Dinamo Bucuresti
1.02
FC Clinceni
1.98

finishing

Dinamo Bucuresti+0.00on par
FC Clinceni+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bucuresti ↓

FC Clinceni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Dinamo Bucuresti or draw
78%
Dinamo Bucuresti or FC Clinceni
75%
Draw or FC Clinceni
47%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bucuresti wins by 2+
28%
FC Clinceni wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dinamo Bucuresti 1+ goals
80%
Dinamo Bucuresti 2+ goals
48%
Dinamo Bucuresti 3+ goals
22%
FC Clinceni 1+ goals
62%
FC Clinceni 2+ goals
25%
FC Clinceni 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bucuresti (draw refunded)
70%
FC Clinceni (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bucuresti at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.02 · 136 matches

FC Clinceni away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bucuresti attack 1.28 + FC Clinceni defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.63

FC Clinceni attack 0.90 + Dinamo Bucuresti defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dinamo Bucuresti scores more
53%
level
25%
FC Clinceni scores more
22%

Dinamo Bucuresti at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dinamo Bucuresti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Dinamo Bucuresti 1–3 FC Clinceni

FC Clinceni beat Dinamo Bucuresti 3-1 in Liga I on April 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Ştefan cel Mare in Bucureşti.