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Dinamo Bucuresti vs Charleroi — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Dinamo Bucuresti
Dinamo Bucuresti
FT
2 – 6
HT: 2 – 1
Charleroi
Charleroi
1/12/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Dinamo Bucuresti29%
×Draw20%
Charleroi51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Bucuresti
1.73
Charleroi
2.34

Charleroi creates 35% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

Dinamo Bucuresti
1.60
Charleroi
1.69

allows per match

Dinamo Bucuresti
3.00
Charleroi
1.85

finishing

Dinamo Bucuresti+0.00on par
Charleroi+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bucuresti ↓

Charleroi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Dinamo Bucuresti or draw
49%
Dinamo Bucuresti or Charleroi
80%
Draw or Charleroi
71%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bucuresti wins by 2+
14%
Charleroi wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Dinamo Bucuresti 1+ goals
82%
Dinamo Bucuresti 2+ goals
52%
Dinamo Bucuresti 3+ goals
25%
Charleroi 1+ goals
90%
Charleroi 2+ goals
67%
Charleroi 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bucuresti (draw refunded)
36%
Charleroi (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bucuresti at home — creates 1.60, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

Charleroi away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bucuresti attack 1.60 + Charleroi defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.73

Charleroi attack 1.69 + Dinamo Bucuresti defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dinamo Bucuresti scores more
29%
level
20%
Charleroi scores more
51%

Charleroi at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Charleroi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Dinamo Bucuresti 2–6 Charleroi

Charleroi beat Dinamo Bucuresti 6-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 12, 2024.

The match was played at TBC in TBC.