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Dinamo Bryansk vs Zenit 2 — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zenit 2
Zenit 2
4/25/2026Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Spring Season Silver - 10Dynamo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dinamo Bryansk59%
×Draw22%
Zenit 218%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Bryansk
1.86
Zenit 2
0.92

Dinamo Bryansk creates 102% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

creates per match

Dinamo Bryansk
1.39
Zenit 2
1.00

allows per match

Dinamo Bryansk
0.83
Zenit 2
2.33

finishing

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par
Zenit 2+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bryansk ↓

Zenit 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dinamo Bryansk or draw
82%
Dinamo Bryansk or Zenit 2
78%
Draw or Zenit 2
41%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
35%
Zenit 2 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
84%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
55%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
28%
Zenit 2 1+ goals
60%
Zenit 2 2+ goals
23%
Zenit 2 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
76%
Zenit 2 (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bryansk at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Zenit 2 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bryansk attack 1.39 + Zenit 2 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.86

Zenit 2 attack 1.00 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Dinamo Bryansk scores more
59%
level
22%
Zenit 2 scores more
18%

Dinamo Bryansk at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Dinamo Bryansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Bryansk vs Zenit 2

Dinamo Bryansk beat Zenit 2 2-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on April 25, 2026.

The match was played at Dynamo Stadium in Bryansk.