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Dinamo Bryansk vs TOM Tomsk — First League 2018

Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
TOM Tomsk
TOM Tomsk
11/29/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 25Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Dinamo Bryansk33%
×Draw30%
TOM Tomsk37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Bryansk
1.02
TOM Tomsk
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 74 away

creates per match

Dinamo Bryansk
0.71
TOM Tomsk
0.91

allows per match

Dinamo Bryansk
1.29
TOM Tomsk
1.32

finishing

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par
TOM Tomsk+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bryansk ↓

TOM Tomsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dinamo Bryansk or draw
63%
Dinamo Bryansk or TOM Tomsk
70%
Draw or TOM Tomsk
67%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
13%
TOM Tomsk wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
64%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
27%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
8%
TOM Tomsk 1+ goals
67%
TOM Tomsk 2+ goals
30%
TOM Tomsk 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
47%
TOM Tomsk (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bryansk at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

TOM Tomsk away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.32 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.71 + TOM Tomsk defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.02

TOM Tomsk attack 0.91 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dinamo Bryansk scores more
33%
level
30%
TOM Tomsk scores more
37%

TOM Tomsk at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "TOM Tomsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Bryansk vs TOM Tomsk

Dinamo Bryansk beat TOM Tomsk 1-0 in First League on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Bryansk.