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Dinamo Bryansk vs Spartak Moscow 2 — First League 2026

Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
FT
0 – 3
Spartak Moscow 2
Spartak Moscow 2
9/5/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 7Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Dinamo Bryansk34%
×Draw28%
Spartak Moscow 238%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Bryansk
1.16
Spartak Moscow 2
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 73 away

creates per match

Dinamo Bryansk
0.71
Spartak Moscow 2
1.18

allows per match

Dinamo Bryansk
1.29
Spartak Moscow 2
1.60

finishing

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par
Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bryansk ↓

Spartak Moscow 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dinamo Bryansk or draw
62%
Dinamo Bryansk or Spartak Moscow 2
72%
Draw or Spartak Moscow 2
66%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
14%
Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
69%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
32%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
11%
Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals
71%
Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals
35%
Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
48%
Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bryansk at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

Spartak Moscow 2 away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.60 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.71 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.16

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.18 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dinamo Bryansk scores more
34%
level
28%
Spartak Moscow 2 scores more
38%

Spartak Moscow 2 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Spartak Moscow 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Dinamo Bryansk 0–3 Spartak Moscow 2

Spartak Moscow 2 beat Dinamo Bryansk 3-0 in First League on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Bryansk.