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Dinamo Bryansk vs Saturn Ramenskoye — Cup 2019

Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Saturn Ramenskoye
Saturn Ramenskoye
N. Alekhin 120+5' (pen)
V. Drogunov 120+4' (pen)
E. Biryukov 120+5' (pen)
V. Dunay 120+4' (pen)
R. Sosranov 120+1' (pen)
8/20/2025CupCup · Regions Path - 2nd RoundDynamo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dinamo Bryansk26%
×Draw24%
Saturn Ramenskoye50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Bryansk
1.18
Saturn Ramenskoye
1.72

Saturn Ramenskoye creates 46% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Dinamo Bryansk
0.86
Saturn Ramenskoye
1.00

allows per match

Dinamo Bryansk
2.43
Saturn Ramenskoye
1.50

finishing

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par
Saturn Ramenskoye+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 55Under: 4555%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bryansk ↓

Saturn Ramenskoye →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Dinamo Bryansk or draw
50%
Dinamo Bryansk or Saturn Ramenskoye
76%
Draw or Saturn Ramenskoye
74%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
10%
Saturn Ramenskoye wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
69%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
33%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
12%
Saturn Ramenskoye 1+ goals
82%
Saturn Ramenskoye 2+ goals
51%
Saturn Ramenskoye 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
34%
Saturn Ramenskoye (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bryansk at home — creates 0.86, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Saturn Ramenskoye away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.86 + Saturn Ramenskoye defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.18

Saturn Ramenskoye attack 1.00 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dinamo Bryansk scores more
26%
level
24%
Saturn Ramenskoye scores more
50%

Saturn Ramenskoye at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Saturn Ramenskoye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

120+1'
D. PikatovMissed penalty
120+1'
R. SosranovPenalty
120+2'
I. SolovjevMissed penalty
120+2'
R. VoytsekhovskiyMissed penalty
120+3'
A. MedvedevMissed penalty
120+3'
D. KratkovMissed penalty
120+4'
V. DrogunovPenalty
120+4'
V. DunayPenalty
120+5'
N. AlekhinPenalty
120+5'
E. BiryukovPenalty
Dinamo
Saturn
A. Kanchelskis
Manager: A. Kanchelskis
A. Kulikov
Manager: A. Kulikov

Cup: Dinamo Bryansk 0–0 Saturn Ramenskoye

Dinamo Bryansk and Saturn Ramenskoye drew 0-0 in Cup on August 20, 2025.

Goals: R. Sosranov (120+1' pen), V. Drogunov (120+4' pen), V. Dunay (120+4' pen), N. Alekhin (120+5' pen), E. Biryukov (120+5' pen).

The match was played at Dynamo Stadium in Bryansk.