Dinamo Bryansk 1–1 Rotor Volgograd: Result & Stats

Dinamo Bryansk

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Rotor Volgograd

D. Osipov 81'

I. Shmakov 50'

10/22/2023

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 15Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dinamo Bryansk38%

×Draw32%

Rotor Volgograd29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo BryanskExpected goals in this matchRotor Volgograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.83

Dinamo Bryansk

1.00

Rotor Volgograd

0.83

Dinamo Bryansk creates 20% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

0.89

creates per match

0.78

0.89

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Dinamo Bryansk

0.89

Rotor Volgograd

0.78

allows per match

Dinamo Bryansk

0.89

Rotor Volgograd

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bryansk ↓

Rotor Volgograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Dinamo Bryansk or draw

71%

Dinamo Bryansk or Rotor Volgograd

68%

Draw or Rotor Volgograd

62%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+

15%

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals

63%

Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals

26%

Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals

8%

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals

56%

Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals

20%

Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)

57%

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bryansk at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.89 + Rotor Volgograd defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Rotor Volgograd attack 0.78 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dinamo Bryansk scores more

38%

level

32%

Rotor Volgograd scores more

29%

Dinamo Bryansk at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dinamo Bryansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

49'

50'

51'

57'

63'

A. Kanishchev← D. Sobolev

63'

K. Gordeev← M. Gaydukov

70'

R. Magomedov← M. Ageev

70'

R. Gadzhimuradov← R. Akhmedkhanov

71'

P. Kudryashov← A. Novikov

74'

D. Pelikh

77'

D. Arsentiev

80'

R. Gadzhimuradov

80'

G. Shilnikov← I. Shmakov

81'

D. Osipov

90'

E. Saygushev← A. Medvedev

Dinamo

Rotor

1

5

23

2

12

9

▼

Akhmedkha

6

Zavezen

54

⚽

▼

Shmakov

85

Pyatkin

63

▼

Ageev

7

Arsentjev

1

Shebanov

4

⚽

Osipov

2

Evtushenk

3

Luppa

7

▼

Sobolev

10

Drogunov

19

▼

Gaydukov

8

Novikov

15

▼

Novikov

12

▼

Medvedev

22

Kuptsov

Manager: A. Fomichev

63'▲A. Kanishchev←▼D. Sobolev

63'▲K. Gordeev←▼M. Gaydukov

71'▲P. Kudryashov←▼A. Novikov

90'▲E. Saygushev←▼A. Medvedev

Dinamo Bryansk substitutes

6Kanishchev11Gordeev29Kudryashov14Saygushev16Chuvasov25Fomichev27Evinov

Manager: S. Popkov

70'▲R. Magomedov←▼M. Ageev

70'▲R. Gadzhimuradov←▼R. Akhmedkhanov

80'▲G. Shilnikov←▼I. Shmakov

Rotor Volgograd substitutes

10Magomedov40Gadzhimuradov8Shilnikov4Nikitin13Kolesnikov22Rodionov25Vorobjev41Samok80Dontsov