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Dinamo Bryansk vs Nizhny Novgorod — First League 2026

Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod
8/12/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 3Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Dinamo Bryansk24%
×Draw29%
Nizhny Novgorod46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Bryansk
0.82
Nizhny Novgorod
1.25

Nizhny Novgorod creates 52% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 54 away

creates per match

Dinamo Bryansk
0.71
Nizhny Novgorod
1.20

allows per match

Dinamo Bryansk
1.29
Nizhny Novgorod
0.93

finishing

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par
Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bryansk ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dinamo Bryansk or draw
54%
Dinamo Bryansk or Nizhny Novgorod
71%
Draw or Nizhny Novgorod
76%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
8%
Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
56%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
20%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
5%
Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals
71%
Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals
36%
Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
34%
Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bryansk at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.93 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.71 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.82

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.20 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dinamo Bryansk scores more
24%
level
29%
Nizhny Novgorod scores more
46%

Nizhny Novgorod at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Bryansk vs Nizhny Novgorod

Dinamo Bryansk beat Nizhny Novgorod 1-0 in First League on August 12, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Bryansk.