Dinamo Bryansk 6–1 Kvant: Result & Stats

Dinamo Bryansk

FT

6 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Kvant

A. Efimchuk 90', 72'

K. Volovich 86'

I. Gomanyuk 62'

K. Sidorenko 59'

V. Drogunov 42'

A. Bastrykin 29'

6/7/2025

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 11Dynamo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Dinamo Bryansk70%

×Draw20%

Kvant11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo BryanskExpected goals in this matchKvant

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.63

Dinamo Bryansk

2.00

Kvant

0.63

Dinamo Bryansk creates 217% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 93 away

1.74

creates per match

0.88

0.38

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Dinamo Bryansk

1.74

Kvant

0.88

allows per match

Dinamo Bryansk

0.38

Kvant

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Kvant+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bryansk ↓

Kvant →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Dinamo Bryansk or draw

89%

Dinamo Bryansk or Kvant

80%

Draw or Kvant

30%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+

44%

Kvant wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals

86%

Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals

59%

Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals

32%

Kvant 1+ goals

47%

Kvant 2+ goals

13%

Kvant 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)

87%

Kvant (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bryansk at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.38 · 47 matches

Kvant away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.26 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bryansk attack 1.74 + Kvant defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.00

Kvant attack 0.88 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Dinamo Bryansk scores more

70%

level

20%

Kvant scores more

11%

Dinamo Bryansk at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Dinamo Bryansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

E. Shapovalov

29'

A. Bastrykin

42'

V. Drogunov

46'

Y. Krylov← E. Shapovalov

59'

K. Sidorenko

62'

I. Gomanyuk

63'

K. Volovich← D. Golovko

63'

A. Efimchuk← I. Gomanyuk

72'

A. Efimchuk

73'

A. Medvedev← V. Drogunov

73'

D. Lopatin← K. Sidorenko

75'

D. Pikatov← N. Alekhin

77'

N. Shcherbiy← A. Chaplygin

79'

A. Djumaev← A. Yuldashev

86'

K. Volovich

90'

A. Efimchuk

Dinamo

Kvant

1

Poberezhn

13

▼

17

3

4

21

23

⚽

Bastrykin

10

Demidov

30

▼

Chaplygin

35

Ositsin

8

▼

Shapovalo

1

Akmurzin

6

▼

Alekhin

10

⚽

▼

Drogunov

4

Osokin

21

Rapakov

30

▼

Golovko

11

⚽

▼

15

18

19

8

⚽

▼

Sidorenko

Manager: A. Kanchelskis

63'▲K. Volovich←▼D. Golovko

63'▲A. Efimchuk←▼I. Gomanyuk

73'▲A. Medvedev←▼V. Drogunov

73'▲D. Lopatin←▼K. Sidorenko

75'▲D. Pikatov←▼N. Alekhin

Dinamo Bryansk substitutes

13Ermakov16Chuvasov12Berliyan5Ermilov22Timakov17Volovich23Efimchuk25Medvedev20Pikatov9Khalilov32Lopatin27Khrebtov

Manager: O. Morozov

46'▲Y. Krylov←▼E. Shapovalov

77'▲N. Shcherbiy←▼A. Chaplygin

79'▲A. Djumaev←▼A. Yuldashev

Kvant substitutes

16Yakovlev2Merkulov32Krylov22Djumaev11Shchipachev7Zakharov9Shcherbiy18Pchelintsev