Dinamo Bryansk 0–2 Fakel Voronezh: Result & Stats

Dinamo Bryansk

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Fakel Voronezh

3/28/2021

First League · Round 33Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Dinamo Bryansk30%

×Draw28%

Fakel Voronezh42%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo BryanskExpected goals in this matchFakel Voronezh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.25

Dinamo Bryansk

1.02

Fakel Voronezh

1.25

Fakel Voronezh creates 23% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 88 away

0.71

creates per match

1.22

1.29

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Dinamo Bryansk

0.71

Fakel Voronezh

1.22

allows per match

Dinamo Bryansk

1.29

Fakel Voronezh

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bryansk ↓

Fakel Voronezh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Dinamo Bryansk or draw

58%

Dinamo Bryansk or Fakel Voronezh

72%

Draw or Fakel Voronezh

70%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+

11%

Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals

64%

Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals

27%

Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals

8%

Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals

71%

Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals

36%

Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)

42%

Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bryansk at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

Fakel Voronezh away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.32 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.71 + Fakel Voronezh defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.02

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.22 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dinamo Bryansk scores more

30%

level

28%

Fakel Voronezh scores more

42%

Fakel Voronezh at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fakel Voronezh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff