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Dinamo Bryansk vs Fakel II — Second League - Group 3 2020

Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Fakel II
Fakel II
8/1/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 3Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dinamo Bryansk75%
×Draw18%
Fakel II7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Bryansk
2.06
Fakel II
0.46

Dinamo Bryansk creates 348% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 30 away

creates per match

Dinamo Bryansk
1.74
Fakel II
0.53

allows per match

Dinamo Bryansk
0.38
Fakel II
2.37

finishing

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par
Fakel II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bryansk ↓

Fakel II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dinamo Bryansk or draw
93%
Dinamo Bryansk or Fakel II
82%
Draw or Fakel II
25%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
49%
Fakel II wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
87%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
61%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
34%
Fakel II 1+ goals
37%
Fakel II 2+ goals
8%
Fakel II 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
91%
Fakel II (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bryansk at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.38 · 47 matches

Fakel II away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bryansk attack 1.74 + Fakel II defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.06

Fakel II attack 0.53 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Dinamo Bryansk scores more
75%
level
18%
Fakel II scores more
7%

Dinamo Bryansk at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Dinamo Bryansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Bryansk vs Fakel II

Dinamo Bryansk beat Fakel II 5-0 in Second League - Group 3 on August 1, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Bryansk.