Dinamo Bryansk 0–0 Enisey: Result & Stats

Dinamo Bryansk

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Enisey

11/15/2020

First League · Round 22Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Dinamo Bryansk33%

×Draw29%

Enisey38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo BryanskExpected goals in this matchEnisey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.16

Dinamo Bryansk

1.07

Enisey

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 126 away

0.71

creates per match

1.02

1.29

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Dinamo Bryansk

0.71

Enisey

1.02

allows per match

Dinamo Bryansk

1.29

Enisey

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Enisey+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bryansk ↓

Enisey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Dinamo Bryansk or draw

62%

Dinamo Bryansk or Enisey

71%

Draw or Enisey

67%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+

13%

Enisey wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals

66%

Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals

29%

Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals

9%

Enisey 1+ goals

69%

Enisey 2+ goals

32%

Enisey 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)

47%

Enisey (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bryansk at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

Enisey away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.43 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.71 + Enisey defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.07

Enisey attack 1.02 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dinamo Bryansk scores more

33%

level

29%

Enisey scores more

38%

Enisey at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Enisey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

Anzor Sanaia

46'

P. Baranov← D. Agureev

65'

A. Tsiberkin← V. Drogunov

68'

D. Nikitin← Y. Pershin

78'

Aleksey Sapaev

78'

M. Komkov← N. Glushkov

82'

V. Sorokin← A. Tsiberkin

90+1'

D. Pikatov← A. Ukomskiy

Dinamo4-3-3

Enisey4-3-3

9

Sanaya

12

Razdorski

20

Sakharov

32

▼

64

33

96

80

2

15

1

95

26

21

12

39

9

10

▼

Drogunov

44

Valikaev

33

▼

Pershin

91

▼

Ukomskiy

17

▼

Agureev

Manager: A. Gorbachev

46'▲P. Baranov←▼D. Agureev

65'▲A. Tsiberkin←▼V. Drogunov

68'▲D. Nikitin←▼Y. Pershin

82'▲V. Sorokin←▼A. Tsiberkin

90+1'▲D. Pikatov←▼A. Ukomskiy

Dinamo Bryansk substitutes

8Baranov88Tsiberkin5Nikitin14Sorokin20Pikatov1Kuznetsov3Luppa15Novikov23Shebanov31Karetnik

Manager: A. Alferov

78'▲M. Komkov←▼N. Glushkov

Enisey substitutes

10Komkov4Ganus30Rebrov37Dvornikov77Samoylov