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Dinamo Bryansk vs Chayka — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Chayka
Chayka
10/8/2023Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 13Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dinamo Bryansk35%
×Draw30%
Chayka35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Bryansk
1.05
Chayka
1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Dinamo Bryansk
0.89
Chayka
1.22

allows per match

Dinamo Bryansk
0.89
Chayka
1.22

finishing

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par
Chayka+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bryansk ↓

Chayka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dinamo Bryansk or draw
65%
Dinamo Bryansk or Chayka
70%
Draw or Chayka
65%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
14%
Chayka wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
65%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
28%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
9%
Chayka 1+ goals
65%
Chayka 2+ goals
28%
Chayka 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
50%
Chayka (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bryansk at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Chayka away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.89 + Chayka defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.05

Chayka attack 1.22 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Dinamo Bryansk scores more
35%
level
30%
Chayka scores more
35%

Dinamo Bryansk at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Dinamo Bryansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League A - Fall Season Gold: Dinamo Bryansk 1–4 Chayka

Chayka beat Dinamo Bryansk 4-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Bryansk.