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Dinamo Brest vs Smorgon — Premier League 2018

Dinamo Brest
Dinamo Brest
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Smorgon
Smorgon
4/13/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Regional Sport Complex Brestskiy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Dinamo Brest61%
×Draw21%
Smorgon18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Brest
2.08
Smorgon
1.03

Dinamo Brest creates 102% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 58 away

creates per match

Dinamo Brest
1.83
Smorgon
0.88

allows per match

Dinamo Brest
1.18
Smorgon
2.34

finishing

Dinamo Brest+0.00on par
Smorgon+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Brest ↓

Smorgon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dinamo Brest or draw
82%
Dinamo Brest or Smorgon
79%
Draw or Smorgon
39%

Winning margin

Dinamo Brest wins by 2+
38%
Smorgon wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dinamo Brest 1+ goals
87%
Dinamo Brest 2+ goals
61%
Dinamo Brest 3+ goals
34%
Smorgon 1+ goals
64%
Smorgon 2+ goals
28%
Smorgon 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Brest (draw refunded)
77%
Smorgon (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Brest at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.18 · 127 matches

Smorgon away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.34 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Brest attack 1.83 + Smorgon defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.08

Smorgon attack 0.88 + Dinamo Brest defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Dinamo Brest scores more
61%
level
21%
Smorgon scores more
18%

Dinamo Brest at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Dinamo Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Dinamo Brest 2–0 Smorgon

Dinamo Brest beat Smorgon 2-0 in Premier League on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at Regional Sport Complex Brestskiy in Brest.