Dinamo Brest 1–2 FC Isloch Minsk R.: Result & Stats

Dinamo Brest

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

FC Isloch Minsk R.

5/30/2025

Premier League · Round 11Regional Sport Complex Brestskiy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Dinamo Brest45%

×Draw25%

FC Isloch Minsk R.30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo BrestExpected goals in this matchFC Isloch Minsk R.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.25

Dinamo Brest

1.60

FC Isloch Minsk R.

1.25

Dinamo Brest creates 28% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 127 away

1.83

creates per match

1.31

1.18

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Dinamo Brest

1.83

FC Isloch Minsk R.

1.31

allows per match

Dinamo Brest

1.18

FC Isloch Minsk R.

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Brest+0.00on par

FC Isloch Minsk R.+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Brest ↓

FC Isloch Minsk R. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Dinamo Brest or draw

70%

Dinamo Brest or FC Isloch Minsk R.

75%

Draw or FC Isloch Minsk R.

55%

Winning margin

Dinamo Brest wins by 2+

23%

FC Isloch Minsk R. wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Dinamo Brest 1+ goals

80%

Dinamo Brest 2+ goals

47%

Dinamo Brest 3+ goals

22%

FC Isloch Minsk R. 1+ goals

71%

FC Isloch Minsk R. 2+ goals

36%

FC Isloch Minsk R. 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Brest (draw refunded)

60%

FC Isloch Minsk R. (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Brest at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.18 · 127 matches

FC Isloch Minsk R. away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.38 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Brest attack 1.83 + FC Isloch Minsk R. defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.60

FC Isloch Minsk R. attack 1.31 + Dinamo Brest defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dinamo Brest scores more

45%

level

25%

FC Isloch Minsk R. scores more

30%

Dinamo Brest at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dinamo Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff