Dinamo Brest 3–2 Belshina: Result & Stats

Dinamo Brest

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Belshina

12/2/2023

Premier League · Round 30Stadyen DASK Brestski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Dinamo Brest57%

×Draw22%

Belshina21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo BrestExpected goals in this matchBelshina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.13

Dinamo Brest

1.98

Belshina

1.13

Dinamo Brest creates 75% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 51 away

1.83

creates per match

1.08

1.18

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Dinamo Brest

1.83

Belshina

1.08

allows per match

Dinamo Brest

1.18

Belshina

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Brest+0.00on par

Belshina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Brest ↓

Belshina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Dinamo Brest or draw

79%

Dinamo Brest or Belshina

78%

Draw or Belshina

43%

Winning margin

Dinamo Brest wins by 2+

34%

Belshina wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Dinamo Brest 1+ goals

86%

Dinamo Brest 2+ goals

59%

Dinamo Brest 3+ goals

31%

Belshina 1+ goals

68%

Belshina 2+ goals

31%

Belshina 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Brest (draw refunded)

73%

Belshina (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Brest at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.18 · 127 matches

Belshina away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.12 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Brest attack 1.83 + Belshina defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.98

Belshina attack 1.08 + Dinamo Brest defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Dinamo Brest scores more

57%

level

22%

Belshina scores more

21%

Dinamo Brest at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Dinamo Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff