Dinamo Brest Res. 0–1 Slutsk Res.: Result & Stats

Dinamo Brest Res.

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Slutsk Res.

8/27/2023

League #562 · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dinamo Brest Res.16%

×Draw23%

Slutsk Res.61%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo Brest Res.Expected goals in this matchSlutsk Res.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.75

1.75

Dinamo Brest Res.

0.75

Slutsk Res.

1.75

Slutsk Res. creates 133% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

0.75

creates per match

1.75

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Dinamo Brest Res.

0.75

Slutsk Res.

1.75

allows per match

Dinamo Brest Res.

1.75

Slutsk Res.

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Brest Res.+0.00on par

Slutsk Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Brest Res. ↓

Slutsk Res. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–114%

0–213%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Dinamo Brest Res. or draw

39%

Dinamo Brest Res. or Slutsk Res.

77%

Draw or Slutsk Res.

84%

Winning margin

Dinamo Brest Res. wins by 2+

4%

Slutsk Res. wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Dinamo Brest Res. 1+ goals

53%

Dinamo Brest Res. 2+ goals

17%

Dinamo Brest Res. 3+ goals

4%

Slutsk Res. 1+ goals

83%

Slutsk Res. 2+ goals

52%

Slutsk Res. 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Brest Res. (draw refunded)

20%

Slutsk Res. (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Brest Res. at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Slutsk Res. away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Brest Res. attack 0.75 + Slutsk Res. defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.75

Slutsk Res. attack 1.75 + Dinamo Brest Res. defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Dinamo Brest Res. scores more

16%

level

23%

Slutsk Res. scores more

61%

Slutsk Res. at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Slutsk Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff