Dinamo Batumi 2–2 Shukura: Result & Stats

Dinamo Batumi

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Shukura

G. Zaria 90+2'

G. Pantsulaia 45'

L. Kupatadze 61' (OG)

M. Sardalishvili 27'

6/27/2021

Erovnuli Liga · Round 10Batumi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Dinamo Batumi61%

×Draw21%

Shukura18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo BatumiExpected goals in this matchShukura

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

0.95

Dinamo Batumi

1.97

Shukura

0.95

Dinamo Batumi creates 107% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 39 away

1.91

creates per match

0.79

1.11

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Dinamo Batumi

1.91

Shukura

0.79

allows per match

Dinamo Batumi

1.11

Shukura

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Batumi+0.00on par

Shukura+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Batumi ↓

Shukura →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Dinamo Batumi or draw

82%

Dinamo Batumi or Shukura

79%

Draw or Shukura

39%

Winning margin

Dinamo Batumi wins by 2+

37%

Shukura wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Dinamo Batumi 1+ goals

86%

Dinamo Batumi 2+ goals

58%

Dinamo Batumi 3+ goals

31%

Shukura 1+ goals

61%

Shukura 2+ goals

25%

Shukura 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Batumi (draw refunded)

78%

Shukura (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Batumi at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.11 · 117 matches

Shukura away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.03 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Batumi attack 1.91 + Shukura defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.97

Shukura attack 0.79 + Dinamo Batumi defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Dinamo Batumi scores more

61%

level

21%

Shukura scores more

18%

Dinamo Batumi at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Dinamo Batumi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

M. Sardalishvili

35'

L. Kvaratskhelia

45'

G. Pantsulaia

46'

G. Gogitidze← L. Kvaratskhelia

57'

M. Gagoshidze← M. Kobakhidze

61'

L. KupatadzeOwn goal

64'

G. Zaria← Flamarion

64'

G. Nikabadze← T. Gaprindashvili

67'

I. Azarov

72'

L. Grozurek← G. Manjgaladze

72'

G. Chabradze← V. Mamuchashvili

76'

B. Verulidze← L. Ingorokva

80'

B. Verulidze

81'

L. Khmaladze← M. Sardalishvili

87'

S. Jintcharadze← B. Varshanidze

90+1'

A. J. de

90+2'

G. Zaria

Dinamo

Shukura

1

23

2

26

5

22

27

▼

Kvaratskh

33

Jefinho

21

⚽

▼

Sardalish

14

▼

Ingorokva

4

▼

Varshanid

13

🥅

Kupatadze

23

▼

Kobakhidz

4

Margvelas

6

▼

Gaprindas

16

Azarovi

8

Jighauri

17

▼

Mamuchash

19

Altunashv

11

▼

Manjgalad

14

⚽

Pantsulai

40

▼

Flamarion

Manager: G. Geguchadze

57'▲M. Gagoshidze←▼M. Kobakhidze

64'▲G. Zaria←▼Flamarion

64'▲G. Nikabadze←▼T. Gaprindashvili

72'▲L. Grozurek←▼G. Manjgaladze

72'▲G. Chabradze←▼V. Mamuchashvili

Dinamo Batumi substitutes

24Gagoshidze7Zaria9Nikabadze21Grozurek35Chabradze1Alavidze22Navalovski27Sanogo30Shindagoridze

Manager: G. Shashiashvili

46'▲G. Gogitidze←▼L. Kvaratskhelia

76'▲B. Verulidze←▼L. Ingorokva

81'▲L. Khmaladze←▼M. Sardalishvili

87'▲S. Jintcharadze←▼B. Varshanidze

Shukura substitutes

6Gogitidze17Verulidze8Khmaladze31Jintcharadze13Sherozia19Apkhazava20Tanor40Ekvtimishvili

Match Recap: Dinamo Batumi vs Shukura

Dinamo Batumi and Shukura drew 2-2 in Erovnuli Liga on June 27, 2021.

Goals: M. Sardalishvili (27'), G. Pantsulaia (45'), L. Kupatadze (61' o.g.), G. Zaria (90+2').

The match was played at Batumi Arena in Batumi.

Dinamo Batumi vs Shukura — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Dinamo Batumi vs Shukura