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Dinamo Barnaul vs Spartak Tuymazy — Second League - Group 4 2020

Dinamo Barnaul
Dinamo Barnaul
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Spartak Tuymazy
Spartak Tuymazy
9/17/2021Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 10Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dinamo Barnaul55%
×Draw21%
Spartak Tuymazy24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Barnaul
2.04
Spartak Tuymazy
1.29

Dinamo Barnaul creates 58% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 14 away

creates per match

Dinamo Barnaul
1.37
Spartak Tuymazy
1.36

allows per match

Dinamo Barnaul
1.23
Spartak Tuymazy
2.71

finishing

Dinamo Barnaul+0.00on par
Spartak Tuymazy+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Barnaul ↓

Spartak Tuymazy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Dinamo Barnaul or draw
76%
Dinamo Barnaul or Spartak Tuymazy
79%
Draw or Spartak Tuymazy
45%

Winning margin

Dinamo Barnaul wins by 2+
32%
Spartak Tuymazy wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dinamo Barnaul 1+ goals
87%
Dinamo Barnaul 2+ goals
60%
Dinamo Barnaul 3+ goals
33%
Spartak Tuymazy 1+ goals
72%
Spartak Tuymazy 2+ goals
37%
Spartak Tuymazy 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Barnaul (draw refunded)
69%
Spartak Tuymazy (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Barnaul at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.23 · 84 matches

Spartak Tuymazy away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Barnaul attack 1.37 + Spartak Tuymazy defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.04

Spartak Tuymazy attack 1.36 + Dinamo Barnaul defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Dinamo Barnaul scores more
55%
level
21%
Spartak Tuymazy scores more
24%

Dinamo Barnaul at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Dinamo Barnaul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 4: Dinamo Barnaul 3–0 Spartak Tuymazy

Dinamo Barnaul beat Spartak Tuymazy 3-0 in Second League - Group 4 on September 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Barnaul.