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Dinamo Barnaul vs Orenburg II — Second League - Group 4 2020

Dinamo Barnaul
Dinamo Barnaul
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Orenburg II
Orenburg II
8/10/2025Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 16Stadion Dynamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Dinamo Barnaul51%
×Draw25%
Orenburg II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Barnaul
1.62
Orenburg II
1.03

Dinamo Barnaul creates 57% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 83 away

creates per match

Dinamo Barnaul
1.37
Orenburg II
0.83

allows per match

Dinamo Barnaul
1.23
Orenburg II
1.87

finishing

Dinamo Barnaul+0.00on par
Orenburg II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Barnaul ↓

Orenburg II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Dinamo Barnaul or draw
76%
Dinamo Barnaul or Orenburg II
75%
Draw or Orenburg II
49%

Winning margin

Dinamo Barnaul wins by 2+
27%
Orenburg II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dinamo Barnaul 1+ goals
80%
Dinamo Barnaul 2+ goals
48%
Dinamo Barnaul 3+ goals
22%
Orenburg II 1+ goals
64%
Orenburg II 2+ goals
28%
Orenburg II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Barnaul (draw refunded)
68%
Orenburg II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Barnaul at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.23 · 84 matches

Orenburg II away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.87 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Barnaul attack 1.37 + Orenburg II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.62

Orenburg II attack 0.83 + Dinamo Barnaul defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dinamo Barnaul scores more
51%
level
25%
Orenburg II scores more
24%

Dinamo Barnaul at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dinamo Barnaul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 4: Dinamo Barnaul 2–0 Orenburg II

Dinamo Barnaul beat Orenburg II 2-0 in Second League - Group 4 on August 10, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Dynamo in Barnaul.