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Dinamo Barnaul vs Lada Tolyatti — Second League - Group 4 2020

Dinamo Barnaul
Dinamo Barnaul
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lada Tolyatti
Lada Tolyatti
10/14/2020Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 11Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Dinamo Barnaul64%
×Draw20%
Lada Tolyatti16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Barnaul
2.15
Lada Tolyatti
0.97

Dinamo Barnaul creates 122% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 41 away

creates per match

Dinamo Barnaul
1.37
Lada Tolyatti
0.71

allows per match

Dinamo Barnaul
1.23
Lada Tolyatti
2.93

finishing

Dinamo Barnaul+0.00on par
Lada Tolyatti+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Barnaul ↓

Lada Tolyatti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dinamo Barnaul or draw
84%
Dinamo Barnaul or Lada Tolyatti
80%
Draw or Lada Tolyatti
36%

Winning margin

Dinamo Barnaul wins by 2+
40%
Lada Tolyatti wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dinamo Barnaul 1+ goals
88%
Dinamo Barnaul 2+ goals
63%
Dinamo Barnaul 3+ goals
36%
Lada Tolyatti 1+ goals
62%
Lada Tolyatti 2+ goals
25%
Lada Tolyatti 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Barnaul (draw refunded)
80%
Lada Tolyatti (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Barnaul at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.23 · 84 matches

Lada Tolyatti away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.93 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Barnaul attack 1.37 + Lada Tolyatti defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.15

Lada Tolyatti attack 0.71 + Dinamo Barnaul defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Dinamo Barnaul scores more
64%
level
20%
Lada Tolyatti scores more
16%

Dinamo Barnaul at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Dinamo Barnaul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 4: Dinamo Barnaul 3–0 Lada Tolyatti

Dinamo Barnaul beat Lada Tolyatti 3-0 in Second League - Group 4 on October 14, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Barnaul.