Dinamo-Auto 13–0 Socol Copceac: Result & Stats

Dinamo-Auto

13 – 0

HT: 6 – 0

Socol Copceac

10/28/2020

Cupa · Round of 16Stadionul Dinamo-Auto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dinamo-Auto94%

×Draw4%

Socol Copceac2%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo-AutoExpected goals in this matchSocol Copceac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

6.33

1.17

Dinamo-Auto

6.33

Socol Copceac

1.17

Dinamo-Auto creates 441% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

5.00

creates per match

0.67

1.67

allows per match

7.67

creates per match

Dinamo-Auto

5.00

Socol Copceac

0.67

allows per match

Dinamo-Auto

1.67

Socol Copceac

7.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo-Auto+0.00on par

Socol Copceac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over96
Under4

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo-Auto ↓

Socol Copceac →

0–00%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1–01%

1–11%

1–20%

1–30%

1–40%

2–02%

2–12%

2–21%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–07%

4–18%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 44% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

99%1%2.5

96%4%3.5

89%11%4.5

76%24%

Double chance

Dinamo-Auto or draw

98%

Dinamo-Auto or Socol Copceac

96%

Draw or Socol Copceac

Winning margin

Dinamo-Auto wins by 2+

85%

Socol Copceac wins by 2+

Team goals

Dinamo-Auto 1+ goals

100%

Dinamo-Auto 2+ goals

98%

Dinamo-Auto 3+ goals

91%

Socol Copceac 1+ goals

69%

Socol Copceac 2+ goals

33%

Socol Copceac 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dinamo-Auto (draw refunded)

98%

Socol Copceac (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dinamo-Auto at home — creates 5.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Socol Copceac away — creates 0.67, concedes 7.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo-Auto attack 5.00 + Socol Copceac defence 7.67 → ÷2 → 6.33

Socol Copceac attack 0.67 + Dinamo-Auto defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 94%?"

Dinamo-Auto scores more

94%

level

Socol Copceac scores more

Dinamo-Auto at 94% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 94% does not mean "Dinamo-Auto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff