Dinamo-Auto 1–1 Sfîntul Gheorghe: Result & Stats

Dinamo-Auto

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sfîntul Gheorghe

5/4/2021

Cupa · Semi-finalsStadionul Dinamo-Auto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dinamo-Auto46%

×Draw18%

Sfîntul Gheorghe36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo-AutoExpected goals in this matchSfîntul Gheorghe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.88

2.58

Dinamo-Auto

2.88

Sfîntul Gheorghe

2.58

Dinamo-Auto creates 12% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

5.00

creates per match

3.50

1.67

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Dinamo-Auto

5.00

Sfîntul Gheorghe

3.50

allows per match

Dinamo-Auto

1.67

Sfîntul Gheorghe

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo-Auto+0.00on par

Sfîntul Gheorghe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over90
Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes87
No13

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo-Auto ↓

Sfîntul Gheorghe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–01%

1–13%

1–24%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–24%

4–34%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

90%10%3.5

78%22%4.5

62%38%

Double chance

Dinamo-Auto or draw

64%

Dinamo-Auto or Sfîntul Gheorghe

82%

Draw or Sfîntul Gheorghe

54%

Winning margin

Dinamo-Auto wins by 2+

28%

Sfîntul Gheorghe wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Dinamo-Auto 1+ goals

94%

Dinamo-Auto 2+ goals

78%

Dinamo-Auto 3+ goals

54%

Sfîntul Gheorghe 1+ goals

92%

Sfîntul Gheorghe 2+ goals

72%

Sfîntul Gheorghe 3+ goals

47%

Draw no bet

Dinamo-Auto (draw refunded)

56%

Sfîntul Gheorghe (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

84%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo-Auto at home — creates 5.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Sfîntul Gheorghe away — creates 3.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo-Auto attack 5.00 + Sfîntul Gheorghe defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 2.88

Sfîntul Gheorghe attack 3.50 + Dinamo-Auto defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dinamo-Auto scores more

46%

level

18%

Sfîntul Gheorghe scores more

36%

Dinamo-Auto at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dinamo-Auto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff