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Dinamo-Auto vs Milsami Orhei — Super Liga 2026

Dinamo-Auto
Dinamo-Auto
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Milsami Orhei
Milsami Orhei
M. Mihaliov 69'
S. Istrati 89', 76'
A. Antoniuc 43' (pen)
10/17/2021Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 14Stadionul Dinamo-Auto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Dinamo-Auto34%
×Draw26%
Milsami Orhei40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo-Auto
1.29
Milsami Orhei
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 97 away

creates per match

Dinamo-Auto
1.31
Milsami Orhei
1.46

allows per match

Dinamo-Auto
1.35
Milsami Orhei
1.27

finishing

Dinamo-Auto+0.00on par
Milsami Orhei+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo-Auto ↓

Milsami Orhei →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dinamo-Auto or draw
60%
Dinamo-Auto or Milsami Orhei
74%
Draw or Milsami Orhei
66%

Winning margin

Dinamo-Auto wins by 2+
15%
Milsami Orhei wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Dinamo-Auto 1+ goals
72%
Dinamo-Auto 2+ goals
37%
Dinamo-Auto 3+ goals
14%
Milsami Orhei 1+ goals
76%
Milsami Orhei 2+ goals
41%
Milsami Orhei 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Dinamo-Auto (draw refunded)
46%
Milsami Orhei (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo-Auto at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.35 · 55 matches

Milsami Orhei away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.27 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo-Auto attack 1.31 + Milsami Orhei defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Milsami Orhei attack 1.46 + Dinamo-Auto defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dinamo-Auto scores more
34%
level
26%
Milsami Orhei scores more
40%

Milsami Orhei at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Milsami Orhei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
M. Caruntu
27'
E. Zasavitchi
42'
A. Novicov
43'
A. AntoniucPenalty
48'
A. Bilinschii
67'
A. Staris
69'
M. Mihaliov
76'
S. Istrati
89'
S. Istrati

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Dinamo-Auto 1–3 Milsami Orhei

Milsami Orhei beat Dinamo-Auto 3-1 in Super Liga on October 17, 2021.

Goals: A. Antoniuc (43' pen), M. Mihaliov (69'), S. Istrati (76', 89').

The match was played at Stadionul Dinamo-Auto in Ternovca.