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Dinamo-Auto vs Gagauziya-Oguzsport — Cupa 2020

Dinamo-Auto
Dinamo-Auto
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
Gagauziya-Oguzsportadvanced
M. Uzun 100'
P. Pulucciu 93'
10/18/2022CupaCupa · Round of 16Stadionul Dinamo-Auto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dinamo-Auto78%
×Draw12%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo-Auto
3.63
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.33

Dinamo-Auto creates 173% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Dinamo-Auto
5.00
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.00

allows per match

Dinamo-Auto
1.67
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
2.25

finishing

Dinamo-Auto+0.00on par
Gagauziya-Oguzsport+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo-Auto ↓

Gagauziya-Oguzsport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Dinamo-Auto or draw
90%
Dinamo-Auto or Gagauziya-Oguzsport
88%
Draw or Gagauziya-Oguzsport
22%

Winning margin

Dinamo-Auto wins by 2+
60%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Dinamo-Auto 1+ goals
97%
Dinamo-Auto 2+ goals
87%
Dinamo-Auto 3+ goals
68%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport 1+ goals
74%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport 2+ goals
38%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Dinamo-Auto (draw refunded)
88%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo-Auto at home — creates 5.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Gagauziya-Oguzsport away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo-Auto attack 5.00 + Gagauziya-Oguzsport defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 3.63

Gagauziya-Oguzsport attack 1.00 + Dinamo-Auto defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Dinamo-Auto scores more
78%
level
12%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport scores more
10%

Dinamo-Auto at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Dinamo-Auto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

71'
U. Mboula
93'
P. Pulucciu
100'
M. Uzun

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dinamo-Auto 0 – 2 Gagauziya-Oguzsport

Gagauziya-Oguzsport beat Dinamo-Auto 2-0 in Cupa on October 18, 2022.

Goals: P. Pulucciu (93'), M. Uzun (100').

The match was played at Stadionul Dinamo-Auto in Ternovca.