Dinamo-Auto 6–2 Făleşti: Result & Stats

Dinamo-Auto

FT

6 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Făleşti

C. Stamov 71'

A. Buiucli 66'

W. Ondo 62'

U. Mboula 24', 17'

A. D. Bah 21'

M. Golovatii 80', 69'

5/3/2023

Super Liga · Promotion Group - 8Stadionul Dinamo-Auto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dinamo-Auto63%

×Draw18%

Făleşti19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo-AutoExpected goals in this matchFăleşti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.51

1.32

Dinamo-Auto

2.51

Făleşti

1.32

Dinamo-Auto creates 90% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 14 away

1.31

creates per match

1.29

1.35

allows per match

3.71

creates per match

Dinamo-Auto

1.31

Făleşti

1.29

allows per match

Dinamo-Auto

1.35

Făleşti

3.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo-Auto+0.00on par

Făleşti+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo-Auto ↓

Făleşti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Dinamo-Auto or draw

81%

Dinamo-Auto or Făleşti

82%

Draw or Făleşti

37%

Winning margin

Dinamo-Auto wins by 2+

41%

Făleşti wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Dinamo-Auto 1+ goals

92%

Dinamo-Auto 2+ goals

71%

Dinamo-Auto 3+ goals

45%

Făleşti 1+ goals

73%

Făleşti 2+ goals

38%

Făleşti 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Dinamo-Auto (draw refunded)

77%

Făleşti (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo-Auto at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.35 · 55 matches

Făleşti away — creates 1.29, concedes 3.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo-Auto attack 1.31 + Făleşti defence 3.71 → ÷2 → 2.51

Făleşti attack 1.29 + Dinamo-Auto defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Dinamo-Auto scores more

63%

level

18%

Făleşti scores more

19%

Dinamo-Auto at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Dinamo-Auto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

U. Mboula

21'

A. D. Bah

24'

U. Mboula

62'

W. Ondo

66'

A. Buiucli

69'

M. Golovatii

71'

C. Stamov

80'

M. Golovatii

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff