Dinamo-Auto 7–0 Codru Lozova: Result & Stats

Dinamo-Auto

FT

7 – 0

HT: 5 – 0

Codru Lozova

9/11/2020

Super Liga · Round 9Stadionul Dinamo-Auto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dinamo-Auto64%

×Draw20%

Codru Lozova15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo-AutoExpected goals in this matchCodru Lozova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

0.91

Dinamo-Auto

2.09

Codru Lozova

0.91

Dinamo-Auto creates 130% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 30 away

1.31

creates per match

0.47

1.35

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Dinamo-Auto

1.31

Codru Lozova

0.47

allows per match

Dinamo-Auto

1.35

Codru Lozova

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo-Auto+0.00on par

Codru Lozova+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo-Auto ↓

Codru Lozova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Dinamo-Auto or draw

85%

Dinamo-Auto or Codru Lozova

80%

Draw or Codru Lozova

36%

Winning margin

Dinamo-Auto wins by 2+

40%

Codru Lozova wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Dinamo-Auto 1+ goals

88%

Dinamo-Auto 2+ goals

62%

Dinamo-Auto 3+ goals

34%

Codru Lozova 1+ goals

60%

Codru Lozova 2+ goals

23%

Codru Lozova 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Dinamo-Auto (draw refunded)

81%

Codru Lozova (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo-Auto at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.35 · 55 matches

Codru Lozova away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo-Auto attack 1.31 + Codru Lozova defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.09

Codru Lozova attack 0.47 + Dinamo-Auto defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Dinamo-Auto scores more

64%

level

20%

Codru Lozova scores more

15%

Dinamo-Auto at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Dinamo-Auto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff