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Dimona vs Bnei Eilat — State Cup 2019

Dimona
Dimona
FT
8 – 0
Bnei Eilat
Bnei Eilat
9/2/2019State CupState Cup · 1st RoundDimona Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dimona73%
×Draw14%
Bnei Eilat12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dimona
3.13
Bnei Eilat
1.25

Dimona creates 150% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Dimona
2.75
Bnei Eilat
0.75

allows per match

Dimona
1.75
Bnei Eilat
3.50

finishing

Dimona+0.00on par
Bnei Eilat+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dimona ↓

Bnei Eilat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Dimona or draw
88%
Dimona or Bnei Eilat
86%
Draw or Bnei Eilat
27%

Winning margin

Dimona wins by 2+
54%
Bnei Eilat wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dimona 1+ goals
95%
Dimona 2+ goals
81%
Dimona 3+ goals
59%
Bnei Eilat 1+ goals
71%
Bnei Eilat 2+ goals
36%
Bnei Eilat 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dimona (draw refunded)
86%
Bnei Eilat (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dimona at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Bnei Eilat away — creates 0.75, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dimona attack 2.75 + Bnei Eilat defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.13

Bnei Eilat attack 0.75 + Dimona defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Dimona scores more
73%
level
14%
Bnei Eilat scores more
12%

Dimona at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Dimona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dimona vs Bnei Eilat

Dimona beat Bnei Eilat 8-0 in State Cup on September 2, 2019.

The match was played at Dimona Municipal Stadium in Dimona.