Dimitrovgrad 2–1 Yambol 1915: Result & Stats

Dimitrovgrad

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Yambol 1915

4/1/2026

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Dimitrovgrad49%

×Draw25%

Yambol 191526%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DimitrovgradExpected goals in this matchYambol 1915

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.10

Dimitrovgrad

1.62

Yambol 1915

1.10

Dimitrovgrad creates 47% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 118 away

1.58

creates per match

1.08

1.12

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Dimitrovgrad

1.58

Yambol 1915

1.08

allows per match

Dimitrovgrad

1.12

Yambol 1915

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dimitrovgrad+0.00on par

Yambol 1915+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dimitrovgrad ↓

Yambol 1915 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Dimitrovgrad or draw

74%

Dimitrovgrad or Yambol 1915

75%

Draw or Yambol 1915

51%

Winning margin

Dimitrovgrad wins by 2+

26%

Yambol 1915 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Dimitrovgrad 1+ goals

80%

Dimitrovgrad 2+ goals

48%

Dimitrovgrad 3+ goals

22%

Yambol 1915 1+ goals

67%

Yambol 1915 2+ goals

30%

Yambol 1915 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Dimitrovgrad (draw refunded)

66%

Yambol 1915 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dimitrovgrad at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.12 · 136 matches

Yambol 1915 away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.66 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dimitrovgrad attack 1.58 + Yambol 1915 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.62

Yambol 1915 attack 1.08 + Dimitrovgrad defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dimitrovgrad scores more

49%

level

25%

Yambol 1915 scores more

26%

Dimitrovgrad at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dimitrovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff