Dimitrovgrad 0–0 Sayana Haskovo: Result & Stats

Dimitrovgrad

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sayana Haskovo

10/4/2025

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 11Stadion Minyor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Dimitrovgrad42%

×Draw25%

Sayana Haskovo33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DimitrovgradExpected goals in this matchSayana Haskovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.29

Dimitrovgrad

1.48

Sayana Haskovo

1.29

Dimitrovgrad creates 15% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 92 away

1.58

creates per match

1.45

1.12

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Dimitrovgrad

1.58

Sayana Haskovo

1.45

allows per match

Dimitrovgrad

1.12

Sayana Haskovo

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dimitrovgrad+0.00on par

Sayana Haskovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dimitrovgrad ↓

Sayana Haskovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Dimitrovgrad or draw

67%

Dimitrovgrad or Sayana Haskovo

75%

Draw or Sayana Haskovo

58%

Winning margin

Dimitrovgrad wins by 2+

20%

Sayana Haskovo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Dimitrovgrad 1+ goals

77%

Dimitrovgrad 2+ goals

43%

Dimitrovgrad 3+ goals

19%

Sayana Haskovo 1+ goals

72%

Sayana Haskovo 2+ goals

37%

Sayana Haskovo 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dimitrovgrad (draw refunded)

56%

Sayana Haskovo (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dimitrovgrad at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.12 · 136 matches

Sayana Haskovo away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.37 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dimitrovgrad attack 1.58 + Sayana Haskovo defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sayana Haskovo attack 1.45 + Dimitrovgrad defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dimitrovgrad scores more

42%

level

25%

Sayana Haskovo scores more

33%

Dimitrovgrad at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dimitrovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff