Dimitrovgrad 5–0 Karnobat: Result & Stats

Dimitrovgrad

FT

5 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Karnobat

11/23/2024

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 18Stadion Minyor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Dimitrovgrad63%

×Draw20%

Karnobat17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DimitrovgradExpected goals in this matchKarnobat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.96

Dimitrovgrad

2.08

Karnobat

0.96

Dimitrovgrad creates 117% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 118 away

1.58

creates per match

0.79

1.12

allows per match

2.58

creates per match

Dimitrovgrad

1.58

Karnobat

0.79

allows per match

Dimitrovgrad

1.12

Karnobat

2.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dimitrovgrad+0.00on par

Karnobat+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dimitrovgrad ↓

Karnobat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Dimitrovgrad or draw

83%

Dimitrovgrad or Karnobat

80%

Draw or Karnobat

37%

Winning margin

Dimitrovgrad wins by 2+

39%

Karnobat wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Dimitrovgrad 1+ goals

87%

Dimitrovgrad 2+ goals

61%

Dimitrovgrad 3+ goals

34%

Karnobat 1+ goals

62%

Karnobat 2+ goals

25%

Karnobat 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Dimitrovgrad (draw refunded)

79%

Karnobat (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dimitrovgrad at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.12 · 136 matches

Karnobat away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.58 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dimitrovgrad attack 1.58 + Karnobat defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.08

Karnobat attack 0.79 + Dimitrovgrad defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Dimitrovgrad scores more

63%

level

20%

Karnobat scores more

17%

Dimitrovgrad at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Dimitrovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff