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Dimitrovgrad vs FK Svilengrad — Third League - Southeast 2018

Dimitrovgrad
Dimitrovgrad
FT
6 – 2
FK Svilengrad
FK Svilengrad
3/29/2025Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 26Stadion Minyor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Dimitrovgrad56%
×Draw22%
FK Svilengrad23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dimitrovgrad
1.99
FK Svilengrad
1.20

Dimitrovgrad creates 66% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 18 away

creates per match

Dimitrovgrad
1.58
FK Svilengrad
1.28

allows per match

Dimitrovgrad
1.12
FK Svilengrad
2.39

finishing

Dimitrovgrad+0.00on par
FK Svilengrad+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dimitrovgrad ↓

FK Svilengrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dimitrovgrad or draw
77%
Dimitrovgrad or FK Svilengrad
78%
Draw or FK Svilengrad
44%

Winning margin

Dimitrovgrad wins by 2+
33%
FK Svilengrad wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dimitrovgrad 1+ goals
86%
Dimitrovgrad 2+ goals
59%
Dimitrovgrad 3+ goals
32%
FK Svilengrad 1+ goals
70%
FK Svilengrad 2+ goals
34%
FK Svilengrad 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dimitrovgrad (draw refunded)
71%
FK Svilengrad (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dimitrovgrad at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.12 · 136 matches

FK Svilengrad away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dimitrovgrad attack 1.58 + FK Svilengrad defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 1.99

FK Svilengrad attack 1.28 + Dimitrovgrad defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Dimitrovgrad scores more
56%
level
22%
FK Svilengrad scores more
23%

Dimitrovgrad at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Dimitrovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dimitrovgrad vs FK Svilengrad

Dimitrovgrad beat FK Svilengrad 6-2 in Third League - Southeast on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Minyor in Dimitrovgrad.