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Dimitrovgrad vs Botev Plovdiv III — Third League - Southeast 2018

Dimitrovgrad
Dimitrovgrad
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Botev Plovdiv III
Botev Plovdiv III
5/31/2025Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 38Stadion Minyor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dimitrovgrad54%
×Draw23%
Botev Plovdiv III23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dimitrovgrad
1.87
Botev Plovdiv III
1.14

Dimitrovgrad creates 64% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 19 away

creates per match

Dimitrovgrad
1.58
Botev Plovdiv III
1.16

allows per match

Dimitrovgrad
1.12
Botev Plovdiv III
2.16

finishing

Dimitrovgrad+0.00on par
Botev Plovdiv III+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dimitrovgrad ↓

Botev Plovdiv III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Dimitrovgrad or draw
77%
Dimitrovgrad or Botev Plovdiv III
77%
Draw or Botev Plovdiv III
46%

Winning margin

Dimitrovgrad wins by 2+
31%
Botev Plovdiv III wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dimitrovgrad 1+ goals
85%
Dimitrovgrad 2+ goals
56%
Dimitrovgrad 3+ goals
29%
Botev Plovdiv III 1+ goals
68%
Botev Plovdiv III 2+ goals
32%
Botev Plovdiv III 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dimitrovgrad (draw refunded)
70%
Botev Plovdiv III (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dimitrovgrad at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.12 · 136 matches

Botev Plovdiv III away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dimitrovgrad attack 1.58 + Botev Plovdiv III defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.87

Botev Plovdiv III attack 1.16 + Dimitrovgrad defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Dimitrovgrad scores more
54%
level
23%
Botev Plovdiv III scores more
23%

Dimitrovgrad at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Dimitrovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dimitrovgrad vs Botev Plovdiv III

Dimitrovgrad beat Botev Plovdiv III 2-0 in Third League - Southeast on May 31, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Minyor in Dimitrovgrad.