Dimitrovgrad 3–2 Botev Plovdiv II: Result & Stats

Dimitrovgrad

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Botev Plovdiv II

10/1/2023

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 10Stadion Minyor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dimitrovgrad40%

×Draw26%

Botev Plovdiv II34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DimitrovgradExpected goals in this matchBotev Plovdiv II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.29

Dimitrovgrad

1.42

Botev Plovdiv II

1.29

Dimitrovgrad creates 10% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 19 away

1.58

creates per match

1.47

1.12

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Dimitrovgrad

1.58

Botev Plovdiv II

1.47

allows per match

Dimitrovgrad

1.12

Botev Plovdiv II

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dimitrovgrad+0.00on par

Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dimitrovgrad ↓

Botev Plovdiv II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Dimitrovgrad or draw

66%

Dimitrovgrad or Botev Plovdiv II

74%

Draw or Botev Plovdiv II

60%

Winning margin

Dimitrovgrad wins by 2+

19%

Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Dimitrovgrad 1+ goals

76%

Dimitrovgrad 2+ goals

41%

Dimitrovgrad 3+ goals

17%

Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals

72%

Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals

37%

Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dimitrovgrad (draw refunded)

54%

Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dimitrovgrad at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.12 · 136 matches

Botev Plovdiv II away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dimitrovgrad attack 1.58 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.42

Botev Plovdiv II attack 1.47 + Dimitrovgrad defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dimitrovgrad scores more

40%

level

26%

Botev Plovdiv II scores more

34%

Dimitrovgrad at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dimitrovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Dimitrovgrad 3–2 Botev Plovdiv II

Dimitrovgrad beat Botev Plovdiv II 3-2 in Third League - Southeast on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Minyor in Dimitrovgrad.

Dimitrovgrad vs Botev Plovdiv II — Third League - Southeast 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Third League - Southeast: Dimitrovgrad 3–2 Botev Plovdiv II