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Dimitrovgrad vs Beroe II — Third League - Southeast 2018

Dimitrovgrad
Dimitrovgrad
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Beroe II
Beroe II
8/13/2022Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 2Stadion Minyor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Dimitrovgrad65%
×Draw19%
Beroe II15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dimitrovgrad
2.18
Beroe II
0.94

Dimitrovgrad creates 132% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 55 away

creates per match

Dimitrovgrad
1.58
Beroe II
0.76

allows per match

Dimitrovgrad
1.12
Beroe II
2.78

finishing

Dimitrovgrad+0.00on par
Beroe II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dimitrovgrad ↓

Beroe II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dimitrovgrad or draw
85%
Dimitrovgrad or Beroe II
81%
Draw or Beroe II
35%

Winning margin

Dimitrovgrad wins by 2+
42%
Beroe II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dimitrovgrad 1+ goals
89%
Dimitrovgrad 2+ goals
64%
Dimitrovgrad 3+ goals
37%
Beroe II 1+ goals
61%
Beroe II 2+ goals
24%
Beroe II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dimitrovgrad (draw refunded)
81%
Beroe II (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dimitrovgrad at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.12 · 136 matches

Beroe II away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dimitrovgrad attack 1.58 + Beroe II defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.18

Beroe II attack 0.76 + Dimitrovgrad defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Dimitrovgrad scores more
65%
level
19%
Beroe II scores more
15%

Dimitrovgrad at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Dimitrovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Dimitrovgrad 4–0 Beroe II

Dimitrovgrad beat Beroe II 4-0 in Third League - Southeast on August 13, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Minyor in Dimitrovgrad.